Rangeland Livelihood Strategies under Varying Climate Regimes: Model Insights from Southern Kenya
Authored by Rebecca Kariuki, Simon Willcock, Rob Marchant
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.3390/land7020047
Sponsors:
European Union
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
ODD
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Rangelands throughout sub-Saharan Africa are currently undergoing two
major pressures: climate change (through altered rainfall and
seasonality patterns) and habitat fragmentation (brought by land use
change driven by land demand for agriculture and conservation). Here we
explore these dimensions, investigating the impact of land use change
decisions, by pastoralists in southern Kenya rangelands, on human
well-being and animal densities using an agent-based model. The
constructed agent-based model uses input biomass data simulated by the
Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic
vegetation model and parameterized with data from literature. Scenarios
of land use change under different rainfall years, land tenure types and
levels of wildlife conservation support were simulated. Reflecting
reality, our results show livestock grazing as the predominant land use
that changes with precipitation and land tenure leading to varying
livelihood strategies. For example, agriculture is the most common
livelihood in wet years and conservation levels increase with increasing
support of wildlife conservation initiatives. Our model demonstrates the
complex and multiple interactions between pastoralists, land management
and the environment. We highlight the importance of understanding the
conditions driving the sustainability of semi-arid rangelands and the
communities they support, and the role of external actors, such as
wildlife conservation investors, in East Africa.
Tags
Climate change
Grazing
Conservation
Land-use changes
Social-ecological systems
Agent-based-model
Trade-offs
Land-cover
Vegetation dynamics
Precipitation
Pastoralists
Savannahs
Group ranch subdivision
Amboseli-national-park
East-africa
Kajiado district
Wildlife conservation
Pastoral
livelihoods
Mara ecosystem
Maasai mara