Using agent-based modeling to explore policy options supporting adoption of natural gas vehicles in Indonesia
Authored by Bertha Maya Sopha, Christian A Klockner, Dona Febrianti
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2016.06.002
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
The diffusion of Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) has been slow although the
government has already developed infrastructures and regulations to
enable the uptake. This paper attempts to understand the consumers'
adoption decision-making and to explore potential policy interventions
favoring the uptake. Two models are compared: a non-psychological model
and a psychological model. Using Agent-based Social Simulation, the
psychological model was found to offer a better explanation for
underlying mechanisms of the adoption decision. The results indicate
that individual interventions largely fail to induce long-term NGV
diffusion. To promote a sustaining market share of NGVs at 14\% in 2030,
a combined intervention should be introduced that includes: a converter
kit subsidy of 5 M Rupiah for five years, a gradual increase of annual
tax for oil-fueled vehicles to 2.5\% in 2030, increased perceived safety
of NGVs to the same level as that of Low Cost Green Cars, and additional
gas fueling stations. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tags
Indonesia
Agent-Based Social Simulation
Innovation
diffusion
electric vehicles
technology
Product
Impacts
Hybrid
Natural gas vehicles (ngvs)
Adoption decision
Policy intervention
Fuel-cell vehicles