Intraspecific variability may not compensate for increasing climatic volatility
Authored by George P Malanson
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1007/s10144-018-0612-y
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Abstract
The role of intraspecific variability is being examined to improve
predictions of responses to climate change or invasions and in research
on diversity. Simultaneously, the probability and implications of
increased high-frequency climate variability have been raised. An agent
based model simulated two species on an environmental gradient
representing an alpine treeline; a trend in its volatility was added.
The species have different levels of variability, and each individual
has further unique heterogeneity. Environmental volatility and
individual heterogeneity were based on tree ring data from Pinus
albicaulis. Simulations show that increasing volatility leads to
population declines, including extinctions, and to sharper ecotones, and
this impact is only slightly lessened by higher heterogeneity. Some
simulation runs reveal an unanticipated selection for greater individual
variability when volatility creates strong negative anomalies that fall
short of extinction events. Increasing volatility can have significant
ecological impacts because negative anomalies are not balanced by
positive ones.
Tags
Adaptation
Simulation
Climate change
Diversity
phenotypic plasticity
Heterogeneity
Ecotone
USA
Impacts
California
Extinction
Extremes
Gradient
Tree
rings
Evolutionary responses
Positive feedback