Modeling host-seeking behavior of African malaria vector mosquitoes in the presence of long-lasting insecticidal nets

Authored by Anna Shcherbacheva, Heikki Haario, Gerry F Killeen

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2017.10.005

Sponsors: European Union

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

The efficiency of spatial repellents and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) is a key research topic in malaria control. Insecticidal nets reduce the mosquito-human contact rate and simultaneously decrease mosquito populations. However, LLINs demonstrate dissimilar efficiency against different species of malaria mosquitoes. Various factors have been proposed as an explanation, including differences in insecticide-induced mortality, flight characteristics, or persistence of attack. Here we present a discrete agent-based approach that enables the efficiency of LLINs, baited traps and Insecticide Residual Sprays (IRS) to be examined. The model is calibrated with hut-level experimental data to compare the efficiency of protection against two mosquito species: Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis. We show that while such data does not allow an unambiguous identification of the details of how LLINs alter the vector behavior, the model calibrations quantify the overall impact of LLINs for the two different mosquito species. The simulations are generalized to community-scale scenarios that systematically demonstrate the lower efficiency of the LLINs in control of An. arabiensis compared to An. gambiae.

Tags

Agent-based modeling Malaria control Flight Navigation Random-walk Carbon-dioxide Odor plumes Mosquito repellents Long-lasting insecticidal nets Markov chain monte carlo parameter estimation Metropolis algorithm