From oil wealth to green growth - An empirical agent-based model of recession, migration and sustainable urban transition
Authored by J Gary Polhill, Jiaqi Ge, Tony Craig, Nan Liu
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.017
Sponsors:
European Union
Scottish Government
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
UML
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
This paper develops an empirical, multi-layered and spatially-explicit
agent-based model that explores sustainable pathways for Aberdeen city
and surrounding area to transition from an oil-based economy to green
growth. The model takes an integrated, complex systems approach to urban
systems and incorporates the interconnectedness between people,
households, businesses, industries and neighbourhoods. We find that the
oil price collapse could potentially lead to enduring regional decline
and recession. With green growth, however, the crisis could be used as
an opportunity to restructure the regional economy, reshape its
neighbourhoods, and redefine its identity in the global economy. We find
that the type of the green growth and the location of the new businesses
will have profound ramifications for development outcomes, not only by
directly creating businesses and employment opportunities in strategic
areas, but also by redirecting households and service businesses to
these areas. New residential and business centres emerge as a result of
this process. Finally, we argue that industries, businesses and the
labour market are essential components of a deeply integrated urban
system. To understand urban transition, models should consider both
household and industrial aspects.
Tags
Migration
Households
Sustainability
networks
Policy
Spatial agent-based model
Employment
Recession
Protocol
Unemployment
Cycle
City
Decline
Urban transition
Oil
crises
Long-term unemployment
Skill