Modeling the emergence of riots: A geosimulation approach
Authored by Andrew T Crooks, Bianica Pires
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2016.09.003
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
MASON
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Immediately after the 2007 Kenyan election results were announced, the
country erupted in protest. Riots were particularly severe in Kibera, an
informal settlement located within the nation's capital, Nairobi.
Through the lens of geosimulation, an agent-based model is integrated
with social network analysis and geographic information systems to
explore how the environment and local interactions underlying Kibera,
combined with an external trigger, such as a rumor, led to the emergence
of riots. We ground our model on empirical data of Kibera's geospatial
landscape, heterogeneous population, and daily activities of its
residents. In order to effectively construct a model of riots, however,
we must have an understanding of human behavior, especially that related
to an individual's need for identity and the role rumors play on a
person's decision to riot. This provided the foundation to develop the
agents' cognitive model, which created a feedback system between the
agents' activities in physical space and interactions in social space.
Results showed that youth are more susceptible to rioting.
Systematically increasing education and employment opportunities,
however, did not have simple linear effects on rioting, or even on
quality of life with respect to income and activities. The situation is
more complex. By linking agent-based modeling, social network analysis,
and geographic information systems we were able to develop a cognitive
framework for the agents, better represent human behavior by modeling
the interactions that occur over both physical and social space, and
capture the nonlinear, reinforcing nature of the emergence and
dissolution of riots. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tags
Social networks
Agent-based modeling
Social influence
Dynamics
Violence
riots
diffusion
Geographic information systems
growth
Decisions
Space
Social network
analysis
Rumor propagation
Identity theory