The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic

Authored by Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler, Piero Poletti, Alessia Melegaro

Date Published: 2014

DOI: 10.1038/srep07218

Sponsors: European Union European Research Council (ERC)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Evaluating the relative importance of different social contexts in which infection transmission occurs is critical for identifying optimal intervention strategies. Nonetheless, an overall picture of influenza transmission in different social contexts has yet to emerge. Here we provide estimates of the fraction of infections generated in different social contexts during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Italy by making use of a highly detailed individual-based model accounting for time use data and parametrized on the basis of observed age-specific seroprevalence. We found that 41.6\% (95\% CI: 39-43.7\%) of infections occurred in households, 26.7\% (95\% CI: 21-33.2) in schools, 3.3\% (95\% CI: 1.7-5\%) in workplaces, and 28.4\% (95\% CI: 24.6-31.9\%) in the general community. The above estimates strongly depend on the lower susceptibility to infection of individuals 19 + years old compared to younger ones, estimated to be 0.2 (95\% CI 0.12-0.28). We also found that school closure over the weekends contributed to decrease the effective reproduction number of about 8\% and significantly affected the pattern of transmission. These results highlight the pivotal role played by schools in the transmission of the 2009 H1N1 influenza. They may be relevant in the evaluation of intervention options and, hence, for informing policy decisions.

Tags

Model outbreak United-states Infectious-diseases Spread Contacts Parameters School Household A h1n1