A novel agent-based modelling framework for travel time reliability analysis
Authored by Lei Zhang, Chenfeng Xiong
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1080/21680566.2016.1142400
Sponsors:
Federal Highway Administration
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Under transportation network supply and demand uncertainty, travel time
reliability emerges from non-linear interactions among numerous
travellers who are driven by self-interest, learn and adapt in changing
situations, and therefore can be modelled as an emergent network
property. This paper proposes a novel theoretical framework for the
study of complexity regarding travel time reliability on the basis of
empirically derived individual decision rules, and develops an
agent-based evolutionary model for travel time reliability analysis.
Findings show that actual route choice behaviours related to network
reliability are often non-optimal, and that these behaviours themselves
are important determinants of travel time reliability under network
supply and demand uncertainty. While many travellers search for
alternative routes under uncertainty, few travellers actually change
routes. Route choice rules employed by travellers can successfully
improve travel time reliability in most tested uncertainty scenarios,
but they do not necessarily reduce absolute travel time. While reducing
demand uncertainty improves travel time and planning under uncertainty,
the model provides a theoretically sound tool for analysing the impact
of traveller information systems on individual travel behaviour and
network performance. It can also serve as an empirically estimated
router for microscopic traffic simulators or act as a behavioural
assignment algorithm for activity-based travel demand models.
Tags
Agent-based model
Uncertainty
behavior
Risk
information
Route choice
User equilibrium
Game-theory
Large-scale
Travel time reliability
Behavioural
user equilibrium
Congested road networks
Stochastic demand
Transport
network