Modeling technological innovation risks of an entrepreneurial team using system dynamics: An agent-based perspective

Authored by Desheng Dash Wu, Xie Kefan, Liu Hua, Zhao Shi, David L. Olson

Date Published: 2010-07

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.01.015

Sponsors: National Science Foundation China

Platforms: Vensim

Model Documentation: Pseudocode Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Continuous technological innovation has been playing a vital role in ensuring the survival and development of an enterprise in today's economy. This paper studies the problem of technological innovation risk-based decision-making from an entrepreneurial team point of view. We identify the differences between this team decision-making and a traditional individual decision-making problem, where decisions are mainly affected by the decision-maker's risk and value perceptions, and risk preferences. We create a modeling framework for such a new problem, and use system dynamics theory to model it from the agent-based modeling perspective. The proposed approach is validated by a case study of the technological innovation risk decision-making in a Chinese automobile company. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tags

Agent-based modeling System dynamics Causal Loop Diagram Entrepreneurial team Risk-based decision-making (RDM) Technological innovation risk Vensim