Empirical Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling of the Lithuanian Parliamentary Elections

Authored by Aleksejus Kononovicius

Date Published: 2017

DOI: 10.1155/2017/7354642

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We analyze a parties' vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008, and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta distribution. To reproduce this empirical observation, we propose a simple multistate agent-based model of the voting behavior. In the proposed model, agents change the party they vote for either idiosyncratically or due to a linear recruitment mechanism. We use the model to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the election of 1992. We discuss model extensions needed to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the other elections.

Tags

Dynamics statistics Memory rationality Convergence Opinion Financial-markets Majority-rule Political-party Herding model