Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models

Authored by Jonathan Gray, Jason Hilton, Jakub Bijak

Date Published: 2017

DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350280

Sponsors: European Research Council (ERC) United Kingdom Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

This paper investigates the issues associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, we discuss the importance of context, time preference, and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling, as well as the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of an agreed strategy for dealing with any of these issues. Furthermore, we suggest that an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments, with the latter informing future empirical data collection, should form the basis of such an endeavour. The discussion is illustrated with reference to selected demographic agent-based models, with a focus on migration.
Tags
Social influence Uncertainty Economics Risk agent heterogeneity Rural-urban migration time Prospect-theory Land Decision models Demographic methods Social simulation Return migration Metamodels