Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration
Authored by Anna Klabunde, Frans Willekens, Sabine Zinn, Matthias Leuchter
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350281
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
https://www.comses.net/codebases/5146/releases/1.5.0/
Abstract
We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a
behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus
transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned
Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from
Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data
where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists
are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates
are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of
demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence,
which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general
framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher
income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium
term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.
Tags
Agent-based modelling
Agent-based models
networks
Microsimulation
Decision-Making
fertility
Transition
International migration
Planned behavior
Wedding-ring
Life-course
Social-interaction
Life course modelling
Theory of planned
behaviour
Multistate modelling