Brownian agent-based technology forecasting

Authored by Juneseuk Shin, Yongtae Park

Date Published: 2009-10

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.04.001

Sponsors: Korea Research Foundation Korean Government

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Today's innovation process is best characterized by nonlinearity and interaction. Agent-based models build on these concepts, but have not been useful in practice because they are either too complex or too simple to make a good match with reality. As a remedy, we employ a Brownian agent model with intermediate complexity to produce value-added technology forecasting. As an illustration with Korea's software industry data, computer simulation is carried out. Attracted by higher technology value, agents concentrate on specific technology regions, and form co-existing major technology regions of high density. A rough comparison with actual software production data exhibits a fair reflection of reality, and supports the underlying idea that economic motivation of agents should be considered. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tags

Simulation Technology forecasting Brownian agent Intermediate complexity Software industry