Multi-agent simulation of adoption of alternative fuels

Authored by Andre Faaij, Wander Jager, Oscar van Vliet, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg

Date Published: 2010-08

DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2010.03.006

Sponsors: Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)

Platforms: LSD (Laboratory for Simulation Development)

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We have formalized and parameterized a model for the production of six transport fuels and six fuels blends from six feedstocks through 13 different production chains, and their adoption of by 11 distinct subpopulations of motorists. The motorists are represented by agents that use heuristics to choose a fuel on the basis of three attributes and a social feedback loop. Adoption of specific fuels is mostly driven by price differences, but other factors play a role if prices are similar. The results are not always intuitive and do not always show up immediately. We find that sustained combinations of interventions are required to bring about a transition away from petrol or diesel. Adoption of alternative fuels was most often confined to niche markets with a share of 5% or lower. Only in a single case was a complete fuel transition observed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Agent-based modelling Innovation Diffusion Automotive fuels Energy transition biofuels