A risk analysis for the common hamster (Cricetus cricetus)

Authored by K Ulbrich, A Kayser

Date Published: 2004

DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2003.12.006

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

The common hamster (Cricetus cricetus) has suffered a dramatic decline in Western Europe though the species is characterized by an extremely high reproductive potential. An individual-based model was developed to determine the risk factors which lead to population decline and to investigate management actions for viable populations. Demographic stochasticity was considered by (a) describing reproduction on an individual basis and (b) distinguishing behavioural patterns according to age and sex. Unknown model parameters were determined by comparing field data and simulated patterns in a specific multi-criteria fashion. We conclude that disturbances such as agricultural management and highway construction are most dangerous to the common hamster in autumn. Complex land management is required which should aim at reducing habitat-specific mortality and favouring the safeguarding of adult and subadult females to protect the most sensitive component of the population. According to the model results, large habitat size is not sufficient for survival, and habitat connectivity may be even more important. Late timing of the harvest and following cultivations was Most favourable for population Survival. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Uncertainty Model Consequences Extinction