Spatial-temporal transmission of influenza and its health risks in an urbanized area
Authored by Liang Mao, Ling Bian
Date Published: 2010
DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.03.004
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Abstract
Cities and urban areas play an important role in fostering influenza
transmission, often leading to epidemics and even pandemics. Although
there is growing literature on influenza transmission at national and
international scales, little attention has been paid to a city scale.
This article aims to understand the spatial-temporal transmission of
influenza and identify its health risks in the urbanized area of
Buffalo, New York. An individual-based spatially explicit model is
established to replicate an urban contact network, and simulate
influenza epidemics. The resulting epidemic curves and infection
intensity maps are used to analyze the transmission dynamics, possible
contributing factors, and high-risk places and times. The results
indicate that the city-wide transmission of influenza can be described
by five stages: local growth, expansion, fast city-wide growth, slow
city-wide growth, and fade-out. The places and times associated with
higher risk are closely related to spatial heterogeneity in the
population, and travel behaviors of individuals. Interestingly, these
high-risk places and times are insensitive to where infection sources
are introduced. This research suggests that high-risk places can be
pre-identified as control targets using census and land use data. In
addition, a better understanding on the city-wide travel of individuals
is critical for designing proper timelines for influenza control. These
suggestions will be valuable for local health agencies as they prepare
to combat new waves of H1N1 influenza. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights
reserved.
Tags
Dynamics
networks
Model
smallpox
Epidemic
Pandemic influenza
Strategies
United-states
Spread
Infectious-disease transmission