Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society

Authored by Phillip Stroud, Sara Del Valle, Stephen Sydoriak, Jane Riese, Susan Mniszewski

Date Published: 2007-10

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: C++

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Pseudocode

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

EpiSimS is a massive simulation of the movements, activities, and social interactions of individuals in realistic synthetic populations, and of the dynamics of contagious disease spread on the resulting social contact network. This paper describes the assumptions and methodology in the EpiSimS model. It also describes and presents a simulation of the spatial dynamics of pandemic influenza in an artificial society constructed to match the demographics of southern California. As an example of the utility of the massive simulation approach, we demonstrate a strong correlation between local demographic characteristics and pandemic severity, which gives rise to previously unanticipated spatial pandemic hotspots. In particular, the average household size in a census tract is strongly correlated with the clinical attack rate computed by the simulation. Public heath agencies with responsibility

Tags

Computer simulation Agent Based Modeling Epidemic Simulation Public Health Policy