A Symbolic Investigation of Superspreaders
Authored by Chris McCaig, Mike Begon, Rachel Norman, Carron Shankland
Date Published: 2011
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-010-9603-7
Sponsors:
United Kingdom Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
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Abstract
Superspreaders are an important phenomenon in the spread of infectious
disease, accounting for a higher than average number of new infections
in the population. We use mathematical models to compare the impact of
supershedders and supercontacters on population dynamics. The
stochastic, individual based models are investigated by conversion to
deterministic, population level Mean Field Equations, using process
algebra. The mean emergent population dynamics of the models are shown
to be equivalent with and without superspreaders; however, simulations
confirm expectations of differences in variability, having implications
for individual epidemics.
Tags
models
transmission
Spread
Infectious-disease
Process algebra