A Symbolic Investigation of Superspreaders

Authored by Chris McCaig, Mike Begon, Rachel Norman, Carron Shankland

Date Published: 2011

DOI: 10.1007/s11538-010-9603-7

Sponsors: United Kingdom Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Pseudocode Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Superspreaders are an important phenomenon in the spread of infectious disease, accounting for a higher than average number of new infections in the population. We use mathematical models to compare the impact of supershedders and supercontacters on population dynamics. The stochastic, individual based models are investigated by conversion to deterministic, population level Mean Field Equations, using process algebra. The mean emergent population dynamics of the models are shown to be equivalent with and without superspreaders; however, simulations confirm expectations of differences in variability, having implications for individual epidemics.
Tags
models transmission Spread Infectious-disease Process algebra