An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance

Authored by Andrew D C Williams, Ian M Hall, G James Rubin, Richard Amlot, Steve Leach

Date Published: 2011

DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.001

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the influence of two proposed intervention strategies. We observed that the severity of the resulting epidemic is determined by the degree of personal compliance with said strategies, implying that prior preparedness activities are essential in order that public awareness and willingness to seek treatment is achieved quickly. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Tags

Network Risk Epidemic disease