Modeling dengue outbreaks

Authored by Claudio O Dorso, Marcelo Otero, Daniel H Barmak, Hernan G Solari, Mario A Natiello

Date Published: 2011

DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2011.04.006

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tags

Dynamics Heterogeneity population transmission Hemorrhagic-fever Infectious-disease Epidemic models Aedes-aegypti diptera Realistic distributions Southern india