An individual-based model for Salmonella transmission along the pig production chain
Authored by Stefanie Hotes, Imke Traulsen, Joachim Krieter
Date Published: 2012
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Abstract
The aim was to develop an individual-based model for the transmission of
Salmonella from farrowing farm to slaughterhouse. The present study
concentrated on farrowing sows as the initial source of Salmonella
transmission. The model was evaluated with a sensitivity analysis using
a Plackett-Burman design. Three levels (minimum, default, maximum
values) for all input factors were considered. The deviations from the
default prevalences caused by the extreme values did not balance each
other for several significant input factors. For these factors, the
relation between input factor and regarded health states was not linear.
Results showed that the probability of effective contact, to restart
shedding, the shedding duration and the sow herd prevalences as well as
their distribution across farrowing farms determined the Salmonella
prevalence at slaughter. The study emphasised the importance of vertical
and horizontal transmission. Low Salmonella prevalences obtained after
nursing caused prevalences at slaughterhouse up to 12\%.
Tags
Simulation-model
Spread
Herd