Estimating mortality: Clarifying assumptions and sources of uncertainty in vertical methods

Authored by P Pepin, W C Gentleman, S Doucette

Date Published: 2012

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.05.006

Sponsors: National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Accurate estimates of stage-dependent mortality rates are critical for understanding zooplankton dynamics. Existing methods for estimating mortality from survey data include assumptions that are not always evident, meaning practitioners may be unaware of errors or whether a particular method is appropriate for their data. Here, a quantitative analysis of three vertical (single time point) methods is conducted to help improve confidence in mortality estimates. The underlying theory is reviewed to clarify assumptions and sources of error. The Basic method propagates errors. the Ratio method smoothes stage-to-stage variation, and the Alternative method is unrealistic when rates are constant. Contrary to perception, all three methods neglect the influence of advection. Application to field data for Calanus finmarchicus in the Northwest Atlantic illustrates dependence of estimates on input variables and choice of method. Variation among methods was generally smaller than that caused by uncertainty in physiological rates, and frequent violations of assumptions common to all methods seriously limited their utility. Simulations with an individual-based model reveal unacceptable sensitivity for the Basic method, whereas Ratio and Alternative methods are relatively robust except for dynamic or advective environments. Recommendations are given regarding ways to detect whether these methods can be applied to survey data, as well as to assess uncertainty. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Tags
Population-dynamics Georges bank Growth-rates Northwest atlantic Egg-production Planktonic copepods Seasonal dynamics Copepod calanus-finmarchicus Predation control Oithona-similis