Modelling the effects of diving ducks on zebra mussels Dreissena polymorpha in lakes
Authored by Egbert van Nes, Ruurd Noordhuis, Eddy H H R Lammens, Rob Portieje, Bart Reeze, Edwin Th M Peeters
Date Published: 2008
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.001
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Abstract
An individual-based model describing the growth of zebra mussels
(Dreissena polymorpha) is presented. The model is spatially explicit and
predicts length-frequency distributions of zebra mussels. The parameters
and model inputs with the strongest effect on the model outcomes were
identified using a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. Using a cluster
analysis we could subsequently identify five clusters of parameters with
similar multivariate effect on the model outcomes. We applied the model
to two shallow lakes in the Netherlands (Lake Veluwemeer and Lake
Gooimeer) that differed strongly in densities of diving ducks in winter.
The parameters describing predation by diving ducks were estimated from
literature based on a detailed study on the diets of the dominant
species (tufted duck Aythya fuligula, pochard Aythya ferina and coot
Fulica atra). Growth parameters of zebra mussels were also obtained from
literature. The only parameters that were calibrated were those
describing the densities and timing of larval settlement. The measured
length-frequency distributions of larger mussels (> 8 mm) did not differ
significantly from the modelled distributions in Lake Veluwemeer
(Kolmogorov - Smirnov test p > 0.05, N=1056) and was satisfactory in
Lake Gooimeer. However, the smaller size classes (< 8 mm) that strongly
depend on the success of the most recent reproduction peaks, were harder
to predict. Our study further indicated that the mussels were strongly
limited by food in both lakes. Furthermore, it appeared that the effect
of diving ducks was very different in both lakes. In Lake Veluwemeer
ducks were predicted to reduce the size classes > 8 mm by 90\% whereas
in Lake Gooimeer this reduction was only about 10\%. (c) 2007 Elsevier
B.V. All rights reserved.
Tags
Dynamics
Populations
Impact
River
Water-quality
North-america
Individuals
Aythya-fuligula
Great-lakes
Unionidae