Bioenergy and Food Supply: A Spatial-Agent Dynamic Model of Agricultural Land Use for Jiangsu Province in China
Authored by Juergen Scheffran, Kesheng Shu, Uwe A Schneider
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.3390/en81112369
Sponsors:
German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG)
Austrian Federal Ministry of Science and Research
Chinese Scholarship Council
Platforms:
General Algebraic Modeling System
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
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Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
In this paper we develop an agent-based model to explore a feasible way
of simultaneously providing sufficient food and bioenergy feedstocks in
China. Concerns over the competition for agricultural land resources
between food and bioenergy supply hinder the further development of
bioenergy, especially in China, the country that needs to feed the
world's largest population. Prior research has suggested the
introduction of energy crops and reviewed the resulting agricultural
land use change in China. However, there is a lack of quantitative
studies which estimate the value, contribution, and impact of bioenergy
for specific conditions at the county level and provide adequate
information to guide local practices. To fill this gap, we choose the
Jiangsu Province in China as a case study, build up a spatial-agent
dynamic model of agricultural land use, and perform a sensitivity
analysis for important parameters. The simulation results show that
straw from conventional crops generally dominates Jiangsu's biomass
supply with a contribution above 85\%. The sensitivity analyses reveal
severe consequences of bioenergy targets for local land use. For Jiangsu
Province, reclaimed mudflats, an alternative to arable lands for energy
crop plantation, help to secure the local biomass supply and to
alleviate the land use conflict between food and biomass production.
Tags
Aggregation
security
Energy
Emissions
Developing-countries
Programming sector models
Greenhouse-gas mitigation
Biofuels production
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