Exploring the Contribution of Host Susceptibility to Epidemiological Patterns of Schistosoma japonicum Infection Using an Individual-Based Model
Authored by Shuo Wang, Robert C Spear
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.14-0691
Sponsors:
United States National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Platforms:
MATLAB
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
We recently reported the analysis of epidemiological data suggesting
variability in individual susceptibility to infection by Schistosoma
japonicum among rural villagers who reside in Sichuan Province of
southwestern China. By supplementing the data used in the earlier
analysis from other studies we have reported from this region, we
presented improved estimates of cercarial exposure, which in turn, result in stronger evidence of susceptibility. This analysis was
conducted using an individual-based mathematical model (IBM) whose use
was motivated by the nature and extent of field data from the
low-transmission environments exemplified by one of our datasets and
typical of the current situation in most endemic areas of China. In
addition to individual susceptibility and water contact, the model
includes stochastic aspects of cercarial exposure as well as of
diagnostic procedures, the latter being particularly relevant to the
low-transmission environment. The simulation studies show that, to
produce key aspects of the epidemiological findings, the distribution of
susceptibility ranges over several orders of magnitude and is highly
right skewed. We found no compelling evidence that the distribution of
susceptibility differed between the two populations that underlie both
the epidemiological and simulation results.
Tags
Dynamics
China
calibration
Strategies
Age
Mansoni
Disease transmission models
Multi-group model
Sichuan province
Filariasis