Host immunity and pathogen diversity: A computational study

Authored by Tomas Aquino, Ana Nunes

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1080/21505594.2016.1149284

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

The distinctive features of human influenza A phylogeny have inspired many mathematical and computational studies of viral infections spreading in a host population, but our understanding of the mechanisms that shape the coupled evolution of host immunity, disease incidence and viral antigenic properties is far from complete. In this paper we explore the epidemiology and the phylogeny of a rapidly mutating pathogen in a host population with a weak immune response, that allows re-infection by the same strain and provides little cross-immunity. We find that mutation generates explosive diversity and that, as diversity grows, the system is driven to a very high prevalence level. This is in stark contrast with the behavior of similar models where mutation gives rise to a large epidemic followed by disease extinction, under the assumption that infection with a strain provides lifelong immunity. For low mutation rates, the behavior of the system shows the main qualitative features of influenza evolution. Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneity in the human immune response for understanding influenza A phenomenology. They are meant as a first step toward computationally affordable, individual based models including more complex host-pathogen interactions.

Tags

models Dynamics Epidemic Strain Virus Cross-immunity Influenza-a h3n2 Hemagglutinin-stem Epochal evolution Antigenic space