Ontogeny constrains phenology: opportunities for activity and reproduction interact to dictate potential phenologies in a changing climate
Authored by Jr Michael J Angilletta, Ofir Levy, Lauren B Buckley, Timothy H Keitt
Date Published: 2016
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12595
Sponsors:
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
As global warming has lengthened the active seasons of many species, we
need a framework for predicting how advances in phenology shape the life
history and the resulting fitness of organisms. Using an
individual-based model, we show how warming differently affects annual
cycles of development, growth, reproduction and activity in a group of
North American lizards. Populations in cold regions can grow and
reproduce more when warming lengthens their active season. However, future warming of currently warm regions advances the reproductive
season but reduces the survival of embryos and juveniles. Hence, stressful temperatures during summer can offset predicted gains from
extended growth seasons and select for lizards that reproduce after the
warm summer months. Understanding these cascading effects of climate
change may be crucial to predict shifts in the life history and
demography of species.
Tags
Evolution
ecology
Temperature
Costs
Size
Responses
Lizard sceloporus-undulatus
Life-histories
Embryonic growth
Season