Climate-change driven range shifts of anchovy biomass projected by bio-physical coupling individual based model in the marginal seas of East Asia

Authored by Sukgeun Jung, Ig-Chan Pang, Joon-ho Lee, Kyunghwan Lee

Date Published: 2016

DOI: 10.1007/s12601-016-0055-3

Sponsors: Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Recent studies in the western North Pacific reported a declining standing stock biomass of anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and a climate-driven southward shift of anchovy catch in Korean waters. We investigated the effects of a warming ocean on the latitudinal shift of anchovy catch by developing and applying individual-based models (IBMs) based on a regional ocean circulation model and an IPCC climate change scenario. Despite the greater uncertainty, our two IBMs projected that, by the 2030s, the strengthened Tsushima warm current in the Korea Strait and the East Sea, driven by global warming, and the subsequent confinement of the relatively cold water masses within the Yellow Sea will decrease larval anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea, but will increase it in the Korea Strait and the East Sea. The decreasing trend of anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea was reproduced by our models, but further validation and enhancement of the models is required together with extended ichthyoplankton surveys to understand and reliably project range shifts of anchovy and the impacts such range shifts will have on the marine ecosystems and fisheries in the region.

Tags

Long-term changes Marine ecosystems Korean coastal waters Saury cololabis-saira Tsushima warm current Bottom cold-water Engraulis-japonicus Japanese anchovy Yellow sea Pacific anchovy