Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model
Authored by Deng Ding, David Bennett, Silvia Secchi
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.3390/land4041110
Sponsors:
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
C++
Model Documentation:
ODD
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate farmers' decisions
on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and
biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers'
profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was
used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers'
profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and
operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop
production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical
to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into
agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were
run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for
corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and
switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between
simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based
land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects
that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results
for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land
owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show
that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of
perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their
current crop production systems, likely because of market and production
risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple
farm-profit maximization rule.
Tags
Simulation
multiagent systems
Management
Landscape
bioenergy
switchgrass
United-states
Challenges
Removal
Iowa