Simulating and Communicating Outcomes in Disaster Management Situations

Authored by Michal Lichter, Asher Yair Grinberger, Daniel Felsenstein

Date Published: 2015

DOI: 10.3390/ijgi4041827

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

An important, but overlooked component of disaster managment is raising the awareness and preparedness of potential stakeholders. We show how recent advances in agent-based modeling and geo-information analytics can be combined to this effect. Using a dynamic simulation model, we estimate the long run outcomes of two very different urban disasters with severe consequences: an earthquake and a missile attack. These differ in terms of duration, intensity, permanence, and focal points. These hypothetical shocks are simulated for the downtown area of Jerusalem. Outcomes are compared in terms of their potential for disaster mitigation. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the simulation yield rich outputs. Web-based mapping is used to visualize these results and communicate risk to policy makers, planners, and the informed public. The components and design of this application are described. Implications for participatory disaster management and planning are discussed.

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