Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants
Authored by Helen M Regan, Clara I Bohorquez, David A Keith, Tracey J Regan, Kurt E Anderson
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12831
Sponsors:
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
Fortran
RAMASMetapop
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking
management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty.
No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model
uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to
multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded
similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species
with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from
different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a
facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes
and an additional, species-specific threat. Long-term demographic data
sets were used to construct an individual-based model (IBM), a complex
stage-based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life
stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some
scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex
matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results
were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were
less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios
deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of
factors related to the complexity of the species' life history and how
it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool
for integrating data and understanding species' responses to threats and
management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision
support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and
expert critique of model construction and output.
Tags
Individual-based model
Uncertainty
Reliability
conservation management
classification
Variability
Extinction risk
Conservation biology
Viability analysis
Predictions
Population viability analysis
Fire
management
Matrix models
Matrix model
Grevillea caleyi
Model uncertainty
Xanthorrhoea resinosa