Choosing a future based on the past: Institutions, behavior, and path dependence
Authored by Jenna Bednar, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Scott E Page
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.09.004
Sponsors:
McDonnell Foundation
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
U.S. Army Research
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Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
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Abstract
Institutions do not always produce behavior consistent with what theory
predicts, leading comparative scholars to turn to explanations based on
historical or cultural exceptionalism. Context can influence not only
how an institution performs but also the very choices of institutions
that societies choose to govern themselves. In this paper, we construct
a model that produces contextual effects that result in institutional
path dependence. In doing so, we provide formal foundations for
qualitative arguments that context matters and identify a contributing
causal mechanism: behavioral spillovers. Using both mathematical and
computational techniques, we show that spillovers provide a mechanistic
explanation for how pre-existing institutions affect-the performance of
new institutions as well as the optimal choice among institutions. We
find that these spillovers can depend on either the set or the path of
previous institutions. Both results support qualitative arguments that
historical institutional contexts influence outcomes in current
institutions. Importantly, the spillovers depend not only on the
outcomes produced in the institutions but also on the specific behavior
that produces the outcomes. As a result, we show that institutions that
create diverse ensembles of behaviors generate better outcomes and less
path dependence than those that cause all agents to converge on the
identical strategy. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Tags
Complexity
Cooperation
Culture
emergence
Model
rationality
information
Multiple games
Consequences
Spillovers