An agent-based modeling approach applied to the spread of cholera

Authored by Andrew T Crooks, Atesmachew B. Hailegiorgis

Date Published: 2014-12

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.027

Sponsors: United States Office of Naval Research (ONR)

Platforms: MASON

Model Documentation: UML ODD Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: http://www.css.gmu.edu/cholera/Cholera/Code.html

Abstract

Cholera is an intestinal disease and is characterized by diarrhea and severe dehydration. While cholera has mainly been eliminated in regions that can provide clean water, adequate hygiene and proper sanitation; it remains a constant threat in many parts of Africa and Asia. Within this paper, we develop an agent-based model that explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya. Poor sanitation and housing conditions contribute to frequent incidents of cholera outbreaks within this camp. We model the spread of cholera by explicitly representing the interaction between humans and their environment, and the spread of the epidemic using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. Results from the model show that the spread of cholera grows radially from contaminated water sources and seasonal rains can cause the emergence of cholera outbreaks. This modeling effort highlights the potential of agent-based modeling to explore the spread of cholera in a humanitarian context. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Agent-based modeling Cholera Disease modeling Refugee camps geographical information systems