Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data - Part I: Model structure and validation

Authored by Patrick Ploetz, Till Gnann, Martin Wietschel

Date Published: 2014-11

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.09.021

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

The future market diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is of great importance for transport related green house gas emissions and energy demand. But most studies on the market diffusion of EVs focus on average driving patters and neglect the great variations in daily driving of individuals present in real-world driving data. Yet these variations are important for EVs since range limitations and the electric driving share of plug-in hybrids strongly impact the economic evaluation and consumer acceptance of EVs. Additionally, studies often focus on private cars only and neglect that commercial buyers account for relevant market shares in vehicle sales. Here, we propose a detailed, user specific model for the market diffusion of EVs and evaluation of EV market diffusion policies based on real-world driving data. The data and model proposed include both private and commercial users in Germany and allow the calculation of realistic electric driving shares for all usage patterns. The proposed model explicitly includes user heterogeneity in driving behaviour, different user groups, psychological aspects and the effect of charge-at-home options. Our results show that the proposed model reproduces group specific market shares, gives confidence bands of market shares and simulates individual electric driving shares. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tags

Agent-based model electric vehicles Driving data Market diffusion