Bifurcation analysis of an agent-based model for predator-prey interactions

Authored by C Colon, D Claessen, M Ghil

Date Published: 2015

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.004

Sponsors: European Union French National Research Agency (ANR)

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: ODD Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

The Rosenzweig-MacArthur model is a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that provides an aggregate description of the dynamics of a predator prey system. When including an Allee effect on the prey, this model exhibits bistability and contains a pitchfork bifurcation, a Hopf bifurcation and a heteroclinic bifurcation. We develop an agent-based model (ABM) on a two-dimensional, square lattice that encompasses the key assumptions of the aggregate model. Although the two modelling approaches ODE and ABM differ, both models exhibit similar bifurcation patterns. The ABM model's behaviour is richer and it is analysed using advanced statistical methods. In particular, singular spectrum analysis is used to robustly locate the transition between apparently random, small-amplitude fluctuations around a fixed point and stable, large-amplitude oscillations. Critical slowing down of model trajectories anticipates the heteroclinic bifurcation. Systematic comparison between the ABM and the ODE models' behaviour helps one understand the predator prey system better; it provides guidance in model exploration and allows one to draw more robust conclusions on the nature of predator prey interactions. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tags

individual-based models time-series Dynamics Equation-Free systems evolutionary Climate-change Variability Singular-spectrum analysis Early-warning signals