Random Modelling of Contagious Diseases
Authored by J Demongeot, O Hansen, H Hessami, A S Jannot, J Mintsa, M Rachdi, C Taramasco
Date Published: 2013
DOI: 10.1007/s10441-013-9176-6
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
Java
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Modelling contagious diseases needs to include a mechanistic knowledge
about contacts between hosts and pathogens as specific as possible, e.g., by incorporating in the model information about social networks
through which the disease spreads. The unknown part concerning the
contact mechanism can be modelled using a stochastic approach. For that
purpose, we revisit SIR models by introducing first a microscopic
stochastic version of the contacts between individuals of different
populations (namely Susceptible, Infective and Recovering), then by
adding a random perturbation in the vicinity of the endemic fixed point
of the SIR model and eventually by introducing the definition of various
types of random social networks. We propose as example of application to
contagious diseases the HIV, and we show that a micro-simulation of
individual based modelling (IBM) type can reproduce the current stable
incidence of the HIV epidemic in a population of HIV-positive men having
sex with men (MSM).
Tags
Simulation-model
Viral load
Male circumcision
Hiv-infection
Global asymptotic stability
Simple stochastic epidemic
Homosexual-men
Casual partnerships
Regulatory networks
Small systems