Biodiversity in rubber agroforests, carbon emissions, and rural livelihoods: An agent-based model of land-use dynamics in lowland Sumatra

Authored by Grace B. Villamor, Meine van Noordwijk, Utkur Djanibekov, Paul L. G. Vlek

Date Published: 2014-11

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.013

Sponsors: German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: ODD Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Rubber agroforests in the mostly deforested lowlands of Sumatra, Indonesia are threatened by conversion into monoculture rubber or oil palm plantations. We applied an agent-based model to explore the potential effectiveness of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) design through a biodiversity rich rubber eco-certification scheme. We integrated conditionality, where compliance with biodiversity performance indicators is prerequisite for awarding incentives. We compared a PES policy scenario to `business-as-usual' and `subsidized land use change' scenarios to explore potential trade-offs between ecosystem services delivery and rural income. Results indicated that a rubber agroforest eco-certification scheme could reduce carbon emissions and species loss better than alternative scenarios. However, the suggested premiums were too low to compete with income from other land uses. Nevertheless, integrating our understanding of household agent behavior through a spatially explicit and agent-specific assessment of the trade-offs can help refine the design of conservation initiatives such as PES. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-SA license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/).

Tags

Agent-based model Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) Ecosystem services trade-offs Household decision making Land-use/cover change PES conditionality