The design of ecological landscape models for Everglades restoration
Authored by FH Sklar, HC Fitz, Y Wu, Zee R Van, C McVoy
Date Published: 2001
DOI: 10.1016/s0921-8009(01)00180-x
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Abstract
Restoration of the Everglades is a multi-objective, multi-scale, multi-agency program that requires numerous computer models to test
alternatives, understand ecosystem processes, and evaluate restoration
performance. Landscape models used for Everglades restoration include
hydrologic models, transition probability models, gradient models, distributional mosaic models, and individual-based models. As tools for
restoration feasibility and as the backbone of the policies that will
drive Everglades restoration for the next 20 years, it is critical that
a wide audience evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of six landscape
models. Simulations of historic hydropatterns and current hydropatterns, based mostly upon sheet-flow equations and canal-flow equations, respectively, have been the realm of the Natural Systems Model (NSM) and
the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM). Despite a lack of
biology in these two models, a comparison of their spatial output became
the basis for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP)
approved by the US Congress in October, 2000. SAWCAT, a transitional
probability model, was based upon an analysis of the patchiness of
cattail (Typha) and sawgrass (Cladium) cells in association with levees, water depth, and phosphorus. This statistical approach was used to
predict the amount of sawgrass that would be converted to less desirable
cattail, if phosphorus runoff patterns to the Everglades remained
constant. The Everglades Water Quality Model (EWQM), a mass-balance
gradient approach used to track phosphorus according to a simple net
phosphorus removal coefficient, was used to design Storm Water Treatment
Areas (STA) and to evaluate where and when phosphorus `thresholds' would
be exceeded under various hydrologic restoration plans. The Everglades
landscape Model (ELM), a complex distributional mosaic model, used
site-specific biogeochemical mechanisms and mass-balance to control
energy and material flows, and to predict changes in carbon and
phosphorus structure of the soil, water, and plant communities as a
result of modified water deliveries to the Everglades. The Across
Trophic Level Spatial Simulation (ATLSS), also a distributional mosaic
modeling approach, used individual-based rules of behavior to predict
animal movement and abundance in relation to hydrologic restoration
plans. When these landscape models are combined, they effectively
contribute to water management and policy for Everglades restoration. To
insure their effectiveness, an applied science strategy provides the
framework for their integration into the restoration process. (C) 2001
Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Tags
Evolution
Dynamics
Thermodynamics
Simulations
Fire
Vegetation
Florida everglades
Nutrient
Conservation area 2a
Northern everglades