Simulating urban growth boundaries using a patch-based cellular automaton with economic and ecological constraints
Authored by Yimin Chen, Xia Li, Xiaoping Liu, Hu Huang, Shifa Ma
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2018.1514119
Sponsors:
Chinese National Natural Science Foundation
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been applied in many rapid
urbanizing areas to alleviate the problems of urban sprawl. Although
empirical research has stressed the importance of ecological protection
in UGB delineation, existing UGB models lack a component for the
assessment of ecologically sensitive areas. To address this problem, we
develop an innovative method that is capable of simulating UGB
alternatives with economic and ecological constraints. Our method
employs a patch-based cellular automaton (i.e. SA-Patch-CA) for
simulating future urban growth, constrained by the ecological protection
areas produced by an agent-based land allocation optimization model
(AgentLA). The delineation of UGBs is also based on the estimated future
urban land demand derived from support vector regression (SVR). The
proposed method is applied in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. Three
scenarios are designed to represent different objectives of future
industrial transitions. The results indicate that increasing the shares
of low energy consumption industries and tertiary industries can
effectively reduce urban land demand. By overlapping the simulations, we
found that the areal agreement of the simulated UGBs among the three
scenarios accounts for approximately 88\% of the total area. These areas
can then be considered as the primary locations for establishing the
UGBs.
Tags
Agent-based model
Land-use change
survival analysis
Optimization
Support vector machines
Construction
Area
Expansion
Logistic-regression
Driving forces
Scenario simulations
Urban growth boundary
Sa-patch-ca
Agentla
Ecological protection
areas