Aggregated Agent-Based Simulation Model of Migration Flows of the European Union Countries
Authored by V L Makarov, A R Bakhtizin, G L Beklaryan, A S Akopov, E A Rovenskaya, N V Strelkovskii
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.31857/s042473880004044-7
Sponsors:
Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR)
Platforms:
AnyLogic
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
This article presents the aggregated agent-based simulation model of
migration flows of the European Union (EU) countries, implemented in the
AnyLogic system, created in the form of an extended ``gravity model{''},
according to which individual decisions by agent- migrants are based on
the integrated assessment of socio-economic, geographical and other
differentiation of the respective countries. At the same time, some
factors `attract' migrants, while others `repel'. A distinctive feature
of the model is the differentiation of migration flows by the categories
of migrants with the release of various influencing factors that reflect
the individual preferences of agent-migrants regarding to the
agents-countries (EU members). At the same time, there are multiple
control parameters that affect the distribution of migration flows
between the EU countries, in particular, migration quotas, unemployment
benefits, minimum wages, etc. The most important bicriterial
optimization task of EU countries for choosing rational migration and
economic policies based on maximizing integral GDP and minimizing the
total number of migrants has been formulated. The issue is aimed to
control parameters that affect the structure of migration flows and
labor resources, as well as their maintenance costs. For the first time,
an expanded gravitational model has been proposed and studied,
describing dynamic migration flows with the release of multiple factors
that differentiate the attractiveness of EU countries for various groups
of migrants, for example, internal migrants, economic migrants,
refugees, etc.
Tags
Anylogic
Agent-based modeling of migration flows
Multi-criteria optimization
Problems of migration to the eu