Using cultural, historical, and epidemiological data to inform, calibrate, and verify model structures in agent-based simulations
Authored by Lisa Sattenspiel, Jessica Dimka, Carolyn Orbann
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2019152
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Abstract
Agent-based simulation models are excellent tools for addressing
questions about the spread of infectious diseases in human populations
because realistic, complex behaviors as well as random factors can
readily be incorporated. Agent-based models are flexible and allow for a
wide variety of behaviors, time-related variables, and geographies,
making the calibration process an extremely important step in model
development. Such calibration procedures, including verification and
validation, may be complicated, however, and usually require
incorporation of substantial empirical data and theoretical knowledge of
the populations and processes under study. This paper describes steps
taken to build and calibrate an agent-based model of epidemic spread in
an early 20th century fishing village in Newfoundland and Labrador,
including a description of some of the detailed ethnographic and
historical data available. We illustrate how these data were used to
develop the structure of specific parts of the model. The resulting
model, however, is designed to reflect a generic small community during
the early 20th century and the spread of a directly transmitted disease
within such a community, not the specific place that provided the data.
Following the description of model development, we present the results
of a replication study used to confirm the model behaves as intended.
This study is also used to identify the number of simulations necessary
for high confidence in average model output. We also present selected
results from extensive sensitivity analyses to assess the effect that
variation in parameter values has on model outcomes. After careful
calibration and verification, the model can be used to address specific
practical questions of interest. We provide an illustrative example of
this process.
Tags
Agent-based modeling
Model Calibration
Model verification
epidemic model
Sensitivity-analysis
Sensitivity
analysis
Replication analysis